The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling
One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year
“Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review
Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility…
$27.00
February 3, 2015Nate Silver is the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. He writes the popular Substack “Silver Bulletin,” and was the founder of the website, FiveThirtyEight.
On the Edge
Nate Silver